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The explosive growth of multimedia networks is a major phenomenon of
the end of this century. We are entering a new "space-time",
in which durations and distances are shorter, and which brings with it
fundamental change in political, ecomomic and industrial rules. The development
of personal communication networks based on computers and the telephone
has today become a booming technological sector. France led the way with
Teletel and the Minitel ; the world followed with Internet, the network
of networks. Challenging the power of the traditional pyramids of information
distribution (television, radio channels and publishing houses), alternative,
horizontal systems are gradually emerging, the hallmark of a society in
which individual creativity has its place and all kinds of works can be
disseminated and traded. The tremendous potential of the cyberworld has
not yet been fully understood – especially in France, where most of the
elites consider Internet merely as another new technology. But Internet
is not a new technology : it is an integrated resource-sharing system,
an information eco-system made up of numerous interdependent elements (computers,
modems, networks, software, access and content providers…).
Internet is a protocol which enables computers to share resources at
worldwide level using the 700 million lines of the telephone network. The
question of being "for" or "against" Internet is no
longer relevant. The real debate involves how successfully to enter this
new economic, sociological and cultural world opened up by new communications
systems. In order to enter it successfully, the networks used must be compatible,
connectable and switchable. The strength of the Web – the multimedia fabric
of the new cybernetic space-time – lies in individual switching power.
1. The new network economy
Traditional economic laws are no longer valid in the cyberworld, where
international competitiveness is determined by three parameters :
speed, intelligence and adaptability. Nations and companies which first
conquer and occupy certain regions of the cyberworld benefit from an advantage
over their competitors. In biology, it is very costly for a species to
try and dislodge another species from an ecological niche which it has
conquered and to which it has adjusted. Similarly, nations and firms which
are the first to conquer and occupy cyberworld niches are able to keep
others out. This is well-known to new-generation under the name of "lock-in
effect". This lock-in effect forms a barrier to latecomers.
Changes in people, mentalities and social structures are being brought
about not by the technologies at our disposal but by the new space-time,
which is altering the environment in which human societies evolve. At the
same time, the rapid expansion of the new space-time raises a fundamental
question : that of the compatibility between economic models on the one
hand and mankind's deepest aspirations and equal opportunity on the other.
New constraints have appeared : their names are immaterial added-value
chain and work-space.
For a long time, industry and the economy were based on material added-value
chains ; the rapid growth of "immaterial" services, such as worldwide
electronic trading through the Internet, has occurred only recently. The
traditional, material added-value chain links employees to their employers
in three classic ways : place (to ensure control) ; time (to quantify the
salary base) ; and function (individual know-how implemented inside the
company). The desynchronization, delocalization and dematerialization of
work have led to the appearance of a new class of workers. After the farmer,
the labourer and the employee, we now have the "knowledge worker",
able to transform the raw materials of symbols and abstract data into higher-value
products.
Alongside these developments, the fluidity of the economy has expanded
first to financial products and then to manufactured products. Thanks to
telecommunications, the financial marketplace has been superseded by the
financial marketspace. The free flow of capital transfer, facilitated by
the information society, has resulted in a single worldwide economy. With
the arrival of electronic trading and secure transactions, the market-place
has given way to a global market-space. This new world market raises problems
of taxation, tariffs and intellectual property, in response to which the
American administration has proposed non-taxation or the setting up of
duty-free zones for Internet electronic trading. This is a clever card
to play in view of the dominance of American businesses on the Net, and
reinforces the lock-in effect.
But when it comes to replacing the workplace by a cyber-workspace, the
system jams, and rightly so : the notions of home, employment, quality
of life and culture all stand in the way of cyberworld deterritorialization.
Cyberspace creates a more flexible labour market, and dematerializion of
trade affects the creation of wealth. The best-performing companies have
understood how important it is to use the leverage of the information society
: by combining "material" and "immaterial" added-value
chains, these firms are enjoying unprecedented rates of growth and job
creation. Such chains are based on virtual communities of users and buyers,
on the use of corporate Web sites by customers, on round-the-clock customer
service and on secure transactions. These are the reasons behind the success
of companies that are highly active on the Web, such as FedEx (freight
logistics), Cisco (routers and network connection equipment), Amazon (on-line
bookstore) or Auto By Tel (on-line car dealer). And these companies are
preparing to conquer the world markets.
Such a radical change in the rules of the game could have a far-reaching
impact on the economies of those countries still run according to the traditional
rules of industrial society. In a world in which the new key to competitiveness
is called speed, any delay in keeping up will lead to crises.
The impact of the information society on the economy has now been recognized.
Rather than a totally new society, it is a new form of industrial society.
Above all, the information society is the lubricant that will allow the
jammed cogwheels of our industrial societies to turn freely once again
and generate new growth and employment. It acts as a lubricant by facilitating
economic flows and making both people and ideas more mobile. It helps create
new market niches that act in synergy with each other, and thus sparks
mechanisms of increasing returns, those virtuous cycles that are so typical
of the new network economy.
The question that remains to be answered is the following : how can
the demands of this new economy be reconciled with the preservation of
geographical, cultural and identity roots ? Equal opportunity, humanism,
worker dignity, social protection, protection of employment, attachment
to one's home place …. all these values correspond to deep-seeated needs
and give meaning to life. They are the foundation on which the solidarity
and sharing of an individual-respecting society are built ; how can they
be preserved in a "cyberliberal" economy ?
The risks of entering the new space-time must be accepted. This is a
condition for survival. We must endeavour to combine the positive elements
from two social and economic models : the American model, which is supposed
to promote growth and salaries rather than stability of employment, but
which can make the strong wealthier and the weak poorer and lead to a violent
society ; and the European model, which is supposed to give priority to
social protection and employment rather than growth, but which in the long
term increases the social cost of work and lags further and further behind
in the international economic race.
A third route would promote a free flowing economy, growth and technology-based
industrial dynamism ; yet at the same time ensure social protection, worker
dignity and equal opportunity. This is not a utopian vision. France can
successfully enter the information society and give itself the high-performance
communication tools and the massive education and training resources that
are needed in order to make this vital transition into the future. We must
connect schools via the Internet ; promote the use of simple, low-cost
terminals ; educate people from all walks of society, irrespective
of age or social status ; foster the development of multimedia enterprises
; draw on the resources of the cyberworld using our own culture and our
own language.
A strategy must be implemented urgently. As much is at stake as with,
in the past, the railway, electricity and telephone networks. We must be
careful to choose interconnection standards that are widespread on the
current telephone, cable and satellite networks in order to evolve towards
very high throughputs. The learning curve is essential : the earlier one
enters, the higher the returns on the initial investment. Creating rich
and original content is a far greater priority than the networks of "pipelines",
whatever the engineers say. Maintaining diversity in technical developments
and thus keeping many market options open will prove more fruitful in the
long run than opting for any one specific technical standard.
What is essential at the present time is to be present. Being present
means entering the fray and fighting on equal terms with the others. If
we are not actively present in the cyberworld, how can we even imagine
building the future ?
2. New interfaces between people and computers
The electronic networks, multimedia and information highways which prefigure
cyberspace will require new interfaces between the human brain and the
machines. Among these new interfaces, "smart agents", virtual
reality and permanent computer links with the workplace will play a significant
role.
Future cyberspaces will contain astronomical quantities of information
: traffic on the electronic highways, numerous data banks and interactive
networks. Finding one's way around, navigating and surfing these networks…
accessing these services… having to use countless passwords, keys and codes….
all this will prove an impossible task. The user will need a "smart
agent" able to find its way around the maze of interconnections, sort
and select relevant information, propose strategies for accessing knowledge,
and file and retrieve data from the mass generated by the computers. What
will these "smart agents" be like ? The term refers to expert
programmes providing permanent electronic assistance in handling all the
functions available on computers and networks. "Smart agents"
try to anticipate the user's most probable actions. After a period of "training"
during which they share the user's experience, they learn to execute routine
tasks automatically.
They will quickly become indispensable in reaching people when they
are most needed. Studies have shown that, in emergencies, only one call
in four actually results in a successful connection, the other three going
astray and wasting time. Large telephone and software companies are developing
smart messaging systems, which will link up different communication technologies
in order to locate and contact a person, wherever he or she may be. Expressing
themselves in near-human voice and language, "smart agents" will
become true assistants, sometimes amusing, ironical or critical, always
familiar and often indispensable.
In scarcely five years, virtual reality (VR) has taken the world of
computers and media by surprise. This communication technique consists
of creating, through the computer, virtual spaces in which the operator
can move around and act on an environment built up from synthetic images.
Sensors placed on the helmet detect movements of the head and enable the
computer to change the viewing angle by calculating and synthesizing new
images. By wearing special gloves similarly equipped with movement sensors,
the operator sees fingers appear on the screen as if they were his or her
own hands. In this way, the operator can pick up "electronic objects"
identical to real objects, push switches on and off, start motors, pull
levers, drive machines and operate on a virtual patient. Virtual reality
is today applied in many different areas, and countless interface systems
and tools are available from specialized suppliers.
Thanks to VR, people can now communicate with computers not only through
voice, eye movements, and the position of the head, hands and limbs, but
also through the whole body. We will soon be transmitting bioelectric impulses
from various parts of the body through noninvasive lightweight sensors
; and further in the future, neurone activity will be picked up directly
from the brain, measured by modifications in the brain's magnetic field.
Virtual reality is much more than a mere communication technique. It
is a door that has opened onto new horizons. Mankind has always dreamed
of travelling at high speeds, escaping gravity and communicating and seeing
at great distances. All this has today been achieved in the shape of the
automobile, the aeroplane, the telephone and television. Other goals such
as ubiquity, telekinesis, telepresence, changing one's outward appearance,
reversibly splitting the personality, cloning one's own body or ending
isolation, seem to be forever inaccessible. But virtual reality gives rise
to unprecedented possibilities for exploring these areas.
3. The "smart" company : a "knowledge refinery"
The cyberspace connection interfaces will undergo constant improvement
and increasingly resemble those of biological networks. Hybrids will be
formed from personal computers, telephones and television sets. Needing
no cables to link them to the telephone or electricity networks, they will
be mobile, portable and miniaturized. Their powerful batteries will last
for days without charging. Communication with these machines will be by
voice. We will speak to them in a natural way, without pausing between
words. The machines will speak to us with a masculine or feminine voice,
modulated according to our preference. Moving faces, in two or three dimensions,
will appear on the screen in order to personalize the contact. They will
even leave the screen in the form of small three-dimensional figures (virtual
clones, holographic or projected by appropriate optical means). The machines
will be able to read text written by hand, or even scribbled, on a flexible
electronic panel resembling paper. They will recognize our faces and facial
expressions, our gestures and our body movements, and will extract information
from them in order better to understand us and communicate with us. They
will also be able to pick up odours and scents and use them as an extra
source of information.
The portable versions of these powerful machines will easily fit in
a pocket, like a wallet. They will communicate with us discreetly, either
by talking directly into our ear using cable-free induction or radio waves,
or by displaying text and images which will seem to float in our field
of vision on the virtual screen of lightweight goggles. The virtual reality
interfaces will be simple and compact. VR helmets will be replaced by 3D
spectacles incorporating wireless earphones. Gloves will give way to sensors,
placed on the wrists or other parts of the body, that will detect bioelectric
impulses transmitted by nerves to muscles. Return efforts will be transmitted
by small, lightweight systems. Whenever we choose to do so, it will be
possible, thanks to appropriate mind ergonomy, to immerse ourselves in
the virtual world.
Networks will be permanently connected to these extensions of our brain.
Powerful computers will thus be available at every instant, increasing
many times over the processing capacity of our personal computers.
Laboratory work, joint experiments and huge virtual libraries will be
accessible in cyberspace. Access will take place as though we were moving
physically among shelves of books. We will consult books by clicking on
their cover : their print and illustrations will be identical to real books.
The same feeling of reality will be there when we look for products in
virtual supermarkets and shops, consult catalogues, display objects, manipulate
molecules and travel inside micro-spaces.
The interface with the network of networks will be radically changed
by the generalization of voice control, the automatic connection of ubiquitous
microphones and "smart agents". In the same way that we still
use our personal pens in the era of disposable pens, we will continue to
use micro-computers. But they will be depersonalized and integrated into
the environment. Lower costs, power and miniaturization will means that
dozens of them will be present in a single office, in the form of notepads,
electronic badges and smart post-it notes. The computer will no longer
need to be a nomad, it will be part of the décor. It will become
a "ubicomp" : an ubiquitous, almost disposable computer. Present
everywhere, it will recognize us by means of our interactive badges. It
will communicate with network computers and other "ubicomps"
in its immediate environment using cable-free radio or infra-red links.
We will no longer need to dial in to find out if there is a message in
our electronic mailbox : we will be kept informed of incoming messages
by our "smart agent", who will also read them to us on request.
In organizations in which many people work, employees will wear active
badges tracking their whereabouts. Cameras will record the movements of
people and documents. Procedures will be set up in order to safeguard each
person's privacy, and will undergo constant revision by users. The whole
organization will thus function like an aid to memorizing facts, events,
transactions and meetings, and will facilitate both usage and storage.
During meetings, talks and seminars, computers will record and summarize
everything that is said and make overviews constantly available on the
network. Electronic notepads coupled with video cameras will also be used
: by clicking on a sentence that we had previously noted down, we will
gain immediate access to the whole digitalized sequence of that particular
moment in time.
The goal of these collective communication and memorization techniques
is to increase the intelligence of the organization as a whole. In former
times, resources and tools focused only on enhancing the individual's efficiency
and productivity. Today, they also concentrate on the organization itself
in order to improve its overall intelligence. The organization is being
transformed from a static information structure into a dynamic ecology
of communication. In the phrase coined by John Selly Brown, the director
of Xerox PARC, it is becoming a "knowledge refinery".
4. Interactive marketing, electronic trading and democracy
Interactive marketing is a new market form in which the direction of
the usual arrow, from producer supply to consumer demand, is reversed.
Today, manufacturers mass-produce consumer goods. These products are stored
in exchange and transaction zones (wholesalers', shops, markets, supermarkets)
to which consumers go in order to obtain the products they want. Only a
small proportion of purchases take place electronically at a distance.
In order to attract part of the mass of potential customers to their products,
companies spend large amounts of money on market studies, advertising and
marketing. But the system is blind : the market is known only in the form
of statistical segments of potential customers, market share percentages
and growth rates expressed over relatively long periods of time.
All this changes with real-time retroaction, which can take place, for
example, in personal communication networks using computers or interactive
TV. Here, the arrow points in the opposite direction, from demand towards
supply. Customers express their wishes continuously and in detail. They
vote constantly, using the remote controls, micro-computers, television
sets or smart telephones in their homes. By integrating this flow of direct
information, manufacturers can regulate their stocks more precisely, adjust
their production and increase their profitability, thanks in particular
to the flexibility of automation.
Interactive marketing is going to lead to an explosion of diversity
in some fields and to much greater conformity in others. An infinite number
of market niches will spring up, each matching the needs and desires of
a few only. The transformation of the mass market into a customized market
will reach an unprecedented degree. The information feedback loop, from
purchase by the consumer to order of materials and production by the manufacturer,
will be shortened even further. In this way, firms will be able to respond
in a few weeks, or even a few days, to sudden surges or fads in the market.
The combination of interactive marketing networks (providing information
feedback) and flexible plant (using computer-operated production systems)
highlights the quasi-biological nature of this type of production, in which
supply is continuously adapted to match demand.
Coordinated or collaborative forms of collective action cannot take
place without real-time information feedback. Suppliers must be able to
measure the effects of their actions and compare with competitors. Communication
and processing tools and systems are today emerging which carry information
from the base of an organization or society up to decision-taking level.
Current forms of "society retroaction" are still rudimentary
: the vote gives only an approximate reflection of voters' choices. Various
indirect forms of retroaction however have been generated by the development
of mass media. When filmed, for example, a street demonstration takes on
an emotional force of expression that can exert considerable influence.
Another, more subtle form of retroaction is that of opinion polls published
by the press : they represent a constant mirror and regulation mechanism
that lead to revised standpoints, readjusted opinions and reconversions.
Indirectly, they wield considerable influence in democracies where majority
and opposition each represent about 50% of the vote and elections are lost
and won by a few percent. The market also represents a form of real-time
"society retroaction" : the incalculable number of buyers' and
sellers' decisions, advertising, word of mouth and occasional boycotts
act as regulators, the combined effect of which is difficult to predict
because these actions are chaotic, simultaneous and often irrational.
As electronic interactivity grows in coming years, it will amplify the
role of these societal retroaction loops. The telephone and the Minitel
are already widely used in radio and television broadcasting to gain direct
feedback from listeners and viewers. With the advent of the videophone,
a new dimension will be introduced : "videostations" in public
places will enable viewers to participate directly in TV programmes.
The vast worldwide personal communication networks based on computers
bring disturbing new possibilities. Internet pioneers have suggested setting
up a kind of "electronic parliament" in which citizens could
constantly vote on a series of topics. Ross Perot, American billionnaire
and former White House candidate, promised in his election programme to
install an electronic ballot box in every American household. This form
of global "society retroaction" is particularly dangerous and
could produce fearsome perverse effects. Giving instantaneous answers to
questions posed by the highest authorities could lead to fashion trends
in opinion : fleeting, irrational fads that would rapidly be made obsolete
by subsequent events. Such a societal "short circuit" would not
conform with the response times that are intrinsic to the special dynamics
of social systems. It would correspond well to the short-term, emotional
responses favoured by the media, but would have no real capacity to lay
the foundation for future years by operating in the longer-term. Intermediate
relays such as local councillors, representatives, personalities and members
of parliament play a vital role in the upward flow of information from
the electorate : they create a buffer effect, absorbing social oscillations
and dampening the effect of amplification by the media. The friction, filtering,
delays and constraints in the social system indirectly ensure its protection.
They flatten the amplitude of social oscillations, reduce "parasite"
noise and reveal, over a longer period of time, the basic opinion trends
on which policy can be built.
The new challengers to traditional power that interactive networks have
given birth to must now find their modes of expression. Still seeking their
way, they nevertheless represent one of the major opportunities for the
regulation of society in the democracies of the third millennium. |