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The Communication Revolution
Has Not Started Yet |
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KEMA Conference |
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October 26, 1993 |
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Joël de Rosnay
Director of Strategy
Cité des Sciences et de l'Insdustrie – La Villette – Paris – France
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Introduction
The communication revolution has not started yet. We think we are in themiddle of it because
of rapid progress in cinema, telephone, televisionand the media in general.
More recently we have seen
spectacular progress in the fields of fax, cellularphones, portable computers, satellite broadcasting.
But this evolution is not in proportion with the coming revolution.
Twenty years ago, science
fiction writers and futurologists told us aboutthe information utilities. They promised flat television
screens, Dick Tracywrist watches with video screens. Nothing of this has happened yet.
But twenty
five years of research and development are leading today towardsan explosion of the field of communication.
Computer, television and telephone are merging into systems and planetarynetworks. These networks
will have a deep impact on society and on the waywe work.
I History of the information revolution
1- Biological evolution
Biosystems are communication systems. They use information
to harness energy.Communication is based on chemistry. Molecules are exchanged between
cells.Animals communicate through odours, colours, postures. The intricate communicationsystems
of animals and plants create the cycles of the ecosystem.
Insects communicate through
chemicals. Bees, ants have developped a complexsocial structure and organization. A collective
intelligence emerges fromthe behaviour of millions of individuals.
Cells communicate
through molecules using receptors and networks.
The nervous, immune and hormonal systems function
through chemical informationexchange.
2- Social evolution
Man is a communication machine
building society. There were several stepsin its technological evolution : extension outside the body of
certain tools,integration and acceleration.
Extension : TV is the extension of the eye. Radio, of
the ear. The tool,of the hand. The computer, of the brain.
Speech started first.
Then came writing 5000 years ago. Industrialisationof writing through printing is 500 years old.
Audiovisual and computer technology,about 50 years old. Digital networks only 5 years. A tremendous acceleration.
Now these systems integrate into global networks : economy and industry,through telecommunication and
satellites.
3- Planetary evolution
We are slowly creating a global organism.
The first phase was survival, then development and from now on : sustainabledevelopment.
(Slide 1)
· Survival was based of agriculture and solar renewable energy.
· Development, on the harnessing of energy (mostly fossil fuels)and
the creation of industry. This led to centralized, taylorised, specializedorganizations.
The symbols of this era are : the car, steel industry, highways and concrete.
The major industries
are energy intensive and based on the creation of infrastructures.
· Sustainable development
has start ed with the communication societybased on information and computer networks. It is based on decentralizedstructures.
The symbols are the chip, the computer and the electronic highways.
The major industries are information
intensive and based on the creationof infostructures.
Progressively we are building a global
planetary nervous system which Ihave called the "planetary brain".
II The communication revolution
1- Why now ?
Science and technology
have progressed during the last twenty five yearsof R&D. This has created a cumulative effect.
There are five major reasons for the communication revolution :
a) Digitization
and compression of data.
b) New powerful 64 bits chips.
c) Multimedia software making
easier the interface between men andcomputer .
d) Hybride machines. For example: hybrides
created by the fusion oftelevision, computers and telephone. The happening of multimedia and prefer
ablyunimedia.
e) Powerful networks. Public and private.
2- How does it happen ?
· There is a cross catalysis phenomenon. Plurimedia is just puttingtogether several different
media. Unimedia is the integration of all mediainto one.
The classical sectors : printing,
telephone, computer and audiovisual mergeinto one sector. (Slide 2 and 3)
· Industry
and markets fuse into one global sector of communications.Particularly catalyzed by interactive multimedia
television. I call thisfield "Videomatics". (Slide 4)
3- Who are the actors ?
They come from television, cable, publishing, education, computers, telephonecompanies in the US,
Europe and Japan.
The technical fields merge and creates an explosion of unimedia information.(Slide 5)
4- What does it represent ?
New services and new products.
The communication revolution
has not started yet !
For example :
· The home : around the years 1998-2000, we will have flat TVscreens,
voice access to computers and television. The PC/TV, a televisionwith computer power. Possibility of printing
from the television screen.1000 services of television through telephone lines with access to film,education,
professional training, buying.
There will be new software for navigation into this hypermedia data bank.
· The office : it will have desktop videoconference, cordlessphones, portable multimedia PC.
The virtual office will link several companiesin different countries.
The virtual laboratory will allow
people to work together through groupwaresoftware.
Virtual communication networks with electronic mail
including graphics andimage.
· Public sector : certain functions of the energy, transportationand
telecommunication networks will merge.
Infostructures and infrastructures will meet.
For instance :
energy will use the power networks for telemetry.
Transport ation will use computers for controling
traffic in the intelligenthighway systems (IHS)
Telecommunication will use the TV cable for telephone.
III Impact on society and markets
1- The human and market impact
will be huge through planetary developments.
a) The reverse marketing concept means
that consumers will expresstheir will through the networks in real time.
b) Leadership
will not be centralized but shared in a network.
c) Organization will move from hierarchical to fractal.
d) Training will have to be adapted to complexity.
e) Management of complex systems will move
from cartesian logic tosystemic logic.
2- Risks and dangers of the communication revolution.
· Complexity and information pollution will create "infojams".
· There
will be a widening gap between the information richesand the information poors.
· The network
will be fragile. Risk of viruses, pirates and breakdowns.
· There will be a risk of superficiality
in the network with constantzapping and "channels surfing". Isolation of the users in their"electronic
bubble".
· There is a risk of Big Brother finding out what people are doingconstantly
through electronic surveillance (cedit cards, car tolls, TV programming,access to data banks)
IV Future trends
Man/machine interface will improve through voice input, expert
systems,miniaturized circuits.
"Agents" will help to interface man with computer with
more "userfriendliness"
Virtual reality and cyberspace will create new opportunities for
markets,architecture, medecine. But the risk of "virtual cloning" (electronicallyduplicating an individual)
will be real.
Molecular electronics will allow to build "wet computers" capableto interface with human
systems.
The merging of infostructures and infrastructures will create a mega biology.
Conclusion :
How can we handle such a communication revolution ?
The risk in
Europe is the standardization of cultures and the incompatibilityof networks. But the real challenge is
the reverse : diversity of culturesand standardization of communication networks.
Our capability to
handle the communication revolution will not come onlyfrom technology alone but from a set of values, meaning
and ethics. |
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