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Impact Of Advanced Technologies On Orgonizations And Human Ressources |
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TETRA PAK Conference |
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Baltic sea, June 11-17, 1991 |
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Joël de Rosnay
Director of Strategy
Cité des Sciences et de l'Insdustrie – La Villette – Paris – France
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We face an era of technological breakthrough. What will be its impact onman and society ? Why such progress ?
What type of technologies are to beconsidered? What will be their impact on organizations and on new services?
This presentation will cover 5 sections :
1) Scientific and technological evolution
2) Advanced technological fields
3) Consequences on society
4) Impact on organizations
5) Impact on customers
1 - Scientific and technological evolution
A. Scientific progress :
a) It is often the result
of the convergence of scientific disciplines :
Example : neuro-sciences, robotics, biotechnologies, new materials,
instruments.
b) Information explosion and networks.
Scientific journals, newsletters, congresses, data banks
have a catalyticeffect regarding the scientific information explosion.
c) Cross-fertilization
Relationships
between Government agencies and industrial companies throughjoint R&D programs enhance the cross-fertilization process.
Venturecapital and large multinational research programs like Eureka, Esprit orHuman Frontiers also play a role
in bringing together various fields anddisciplines.
B. Technological evolution :
a) Concept :
Technologies evolve through a process of extension and integration of man'ssenses and muscular power.
The power and capability of the eye, the ear, the voice, the hand, the foothave been extended through
television, radio, tools, machines and factories,automobiles and aeroplanes. Today "senses"
and "muscles"converge in automation equipment, robots and computer integrated manufacturing.
b) History :
Such evolution can be described in 4 major steps :
1- Agriculture : man was able
to survive by using the earth revenueunder the form of renewable energies.
2- Industry :
the discovery of fossil fuels accelerated the technologicalevolution. But man started to use the earth's capital.
3- Info-communication : the discovery of the printing process, of thecomputer and the developement of
communication networks created the presentexplosive communication phase.
4- Bio-ecology : the principles of bioengineering and ecoengineeringwill help to create regulation cycles
at the level of the Planet.
c) Energy and information :
Energy-intensive societies lead toward centralized,
Taylorized, hierarchicaland specialized organizations.
Information-intensive societies lead toward distributive
networks of sharedpower and decentralized operations.
Two major technological evolutions are presently witnessed :
- The micro-engineering trend with the silicon "chip" andthe biotechnology
engineered "bug".
- The macro-engineering trend with ecotechnological projects
(recyclingwaste products, climate change, etc)
Such scientific and technological evolution is not
organized around disciplines(physics, electricity, chemistry, biology...) but it generates multidimensionaltechnological
systems. This is why their is a need for a system's approachin the management of R and D projects.
2 - Advanced technologies forecast
5 fields of interest have been selected :
A. Computers and robotics
Trends : continuity from micro to macrocomputers; importance of
connectivity;
Decrease in size, increase in power;
Voice input/output, character recognition, scanner;
Advanced software, experts systems for personal computers.
Robotics : vision and expert systems
Mobile robots;
Virtual space (example : tri-dimensionnal "shake-hand");
"Fuzzy logic".
B. Telecommunications and videomatics
Communication trends : from personal mobile systems
(phone, fax, portablecomputers, beepers) to global networks (ISDN, digital networks, minitel,satellites, cable);
Videodisks, CD laser, DVI (digital video interactive) CD-Rom, CDV, CDI,Sony data disk man;
Integration of
personal computers and communication networks.
TV (TVHD), flat screen, "smart TV".
C. Intelligent materials, natotechnology, biotechnology
"Smart materials" : sensitive skins,
electro-rheologic fluids(ERF), memory glass, electrochromic materials;
Composites, supraconducting
ceramics, biomaterials, bioelastic polymers
Molecular electronics, bioelectronics;
Natotechnology
(scanning and tunneling electron microscope, STEM) Minirobots,MITI miniature submarine for exploration inside
human body
D. Energy, motors, transportation systems
Production : solar cells, hybrid solar
(Luz Solar), wind aerogenerators;
Storage : batteries, fuel cells;
MHD (magnetohydrodynamics), hybrid
cars (diesel and electric)
Maglev, HTOL (fuels : H2, clean diesel, methanol)
Smart car, guidance systems,
satellite tracking;
E. Bio-engineering and eco-engineering
Genetic engineering, DNA sequencing,
biomodulators, production of chemicals,depollution, diagnostic tests;
Prevention and treatment, "Green
Business", ecotechnology.
3 - Consequences and impact on industrial development
A. Digital networks and fusion of communication systems
Extension and integration.
Writing/ printing; voice and image storage, phone communication; computers,digital storage and
processing. New global media : videomatics.
B. Impact on working life
Office; transportation systems;
home (intelligent homes concept)
The "paperless" office concept.
The "portable office"
concept
C. Impact on personal organization
Data management. Personal computers.
Time management.
D. Impact on companies organisation and strategies
a) Business intelligent
network (BIN)
when ? how ? where ? who ? The example of Silicon Valley
b) Training
Specialists/generalists
Analysts/systemists
c) Diversification strategy
University-industry relationships; venture capital
R&D global strategy
E. Impact on human ressources and consumer's responses
a) Technological risk : isolation (Example : teleshopping)
fragility, complexity, "information
pollution".
b) Needs :
Education (Example : Cite des Sciences et de l'Industrie)
Management of complex systems
Management of information
Management of time
c) Socio economic
trends and consumer's attitudes
Home "cocooning" (living room, communication room)
Ecology and
environmental concern
Portable systems, mobile communication
Educational personnal tools (CDI, DVI)
d) Intelligent home (Domotics)
Safety; energy savings, telework
e) Smart cars
f)
traditional : food, clothing, habits. Mix : "high tech/high touch"
Conclusion
Key issues of the future :
Management of complex systems
Technological systems in industrial
societies
Management of planet earth
"Doctors and Managers" of the planet. |
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